aadimanav
12-10 03:37 PM
Source:
Visa Bulletin for January 2010 (http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bulletin/bulletin_4597.html)
WILL THERE BE ANY ADDITIONAL CUT-OFF DATES FOR FOREIGN STATES IN THE EMPLOYMENT FIRST OR SECOND PREFERENCE CATEGORIES?
At this time it is unlikely that there will be any cut-off dates in the Employment First preferences. It also appears unlikely that it will be necessary to establish a cut-off date other than those already in effect for the Second preference category. Cut-off dates apply to the China and India Second preference categories due to heavy demand, and each has the potential to become "unavailable" should demand cause the annual limit for that category to be reached.
INA Section 202(a)(5) provides that if total demand will be insufficient to use all available numbers in a particular employment preference category in a calendar quarter, then the unused numbers may be made available without regard to the annual per-country limits. For example, if it is determined that based on the level of demand being received at that time there would be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment Second preference category, then numbers could be provided to oversubscribed countries without regard to per-country limitations. Should that occur, the same cut-off date would be applied to each country, since numbers must be provided strictly in priority date order regardless of chargeability. In this instance, greater number use by one country would indicate a higher rate of demand by applicants from that country with earlier priority dates.
Should Section 202(a)(5) be applied, the rate of number use in the Employment preference category would continue to be monitored to determine whether subsequent adjustments are needed in visa availability for oversubscribed countries. This action provides the best possible assurance that all available Employment preference numbers will be used, while still ensuring that numbers remain available for applicants from all other countries that have not yet reached their per-country limit.
WHAT ARE THE PROJECTIONS FOR CUT-OFF DATE MOVEMENT IN THE EMPLOYMENT PREFERENCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF FY-2010?
Based on current indications of demand, the best case scenarios for cut-off dates which will be reached by the end of FY-2010 are as follows:
Employment Second:
China: July through October 2005
India: February through early March 2005
If Section 202(a)(5)were to apply:
China and India: October through December 2005
Employment Third:
Worldwide: April through August 2005
China: June through September 2003
India: January through February 2002
Mexico: January through June 2004
Philippines: April through August 2005
Please be advised that the above date ranges are only estimates which are subject to fluctuations in demand during the coming months. The actual future cut-off dates cannot be guaranteed, and it is possible that some annual limits could be reached prior to the end of the fiscal year.
Visa Bulletin for January 2010 (http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bulletin/bulletin_4597.html)
WILL THERE BE ANY ADDITIONAL CUT-OFF DATES FOR FOREIGN STATES IN THE EMPLOYMENT FIRST OR SECOND PREFERENCE CATEGORIES?
At this time it is unlikely that there will be any cut-off dates in the Employment First preferences. It also appears unlikely that it will be necessary to establish a cut-off date other than those already in effect for the Second preference category. Cut-off dates apply to the China and India Second preference categories due to heavy demand, and each has the potential to become "unavailable" should demand cause the annual limit for that category to be reached.
INA Section 202(a)(5) provides that if total demand will be insufficient to use all available numbers in a particular employment preference category in a calendar quarter, then the unused numbers may be made available without regard to the annual per-country limits. For example, if it is determined that based on the level of demand being received at that time there would be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment Second preference category, then numbers could be provided to oversubscribed countries without regard to per-country limitations. Should that occur, the same cut-off date would be applied to each country, since numbers must be provided strictly in priority date order regardless of chargeability. In this instance, greater number use by one country would indicate a higher rate of demand by applicants from that country with earlier priority dates.
Should Section 202(a)(5) be applied, the rate of number use in the Employment preference category would continue to be monitored to determine whether subsequent adjustments are needed in visa availability for oversubscribed countries. This action provides the best possible assurance that all available Employment preference numbers will be used, while still ensuring that numbers remain available for applicants from all other countries that have not yet reached their per-country limit.
WHAT ARE THE PROJECTIONS FOR CUT-OFF DATE MOVEMENT IN THE EMPLOYMENT PREFERENCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF FY-2010?
Based on current indications of demand, the best case scenarios for cut-off dates which will be reached by the end of FY-2010 are as follows:
Employment Second:
China: July through October 2005
India: February through early March 2005
If Section 202(a)(5)were to apply:
China and India: October through December 2005
Employment Third:
Worldwide: April through August 2005
China: June through September 2003
India: January through February 2002
Mexico: January through June 2004
Philippines: April through August 2005
Please be advised that the above date ranges are only estimates which are subject to fluctuations in demand during the coming months. The actual future cut-off dates cannot be guaranteed, and it is possible that some annual limits could be reached prior to the end of the fiscal year.
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spicy_guy
10-22 10:03 AM
You are correct, it took around 10 months. From prevailing wage to labor approval. 2 months I mean filing actual labor application to approval.
Thanks for the clarification
Thanks for the clarification
LegallyGC
08-12 01:09 PM
I dont think this will change anything ...
1. Infy/TCs and all biggies will shift more jobs to India and other contries or hire people on contract from smaller desi consultants who have less than 50 guys.
2. Desi consulting companies here with more than 50 employees will split them selves into 2 or 3 companies of less than 50 employees and avoid the 2000$ extra fee...
3. 600M will never to till the border and those illegals keep coming.
4. Indian americans leaders (if they read the news about this law) will curse saying "how bad things are now compared to how it was when they came here" and then keep voting democrats....
5. We as immigrant community will talk a lot about this in our forums and curse Senators, Democrats, infy and many others till next month's VISA bulletin and then forget this ever hapened.
6. This thread will have a lot of posts and then slowly phase out...
Unless we decide to educate senators, congressmen, indian americans what are the side affects of this....
1. Infy/TCs and all biggies will shift more jobs to India and other contries or hire people on contract from smaller desi consultants who have less than 50 guys.
2. Desi consulting companies here with more than 50 employees will split them selves into 2 or 3 companies of less than 50 employees and avoid the 2000$ extra fee...
3. 600M will never to till the border and those illegals keep coming.
4. Indian americans leaders (if they read the news about this law) will curse saying "how bad things are now compared to how it was when they came here" and then keep voting democrats....
5. We as immigrant community will talk a lot about this in our forums and curse Senators, Democrats, infy and many others till next month's VISA bulletin and then forget this ever hapened.
6. This thread will have a lot of posts and then slowly phase out...
Unless we decide to educate senators, congressmen, indian americans what are the side affects of this....
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gc_wow
02-18 06:30 PM
Given the current market conditions,I dont think there will be a lot of new EB1,EB-2 ROW filings.Given that EB1 and EB2 ROW are current,there will be considerable overflow to EB2 I and C.The chances are very good that EB2 I and C will move faster than it moved late last year and early this year.April 2009 quarter opens new Visa Numbers too,If EB2 ROW and EB1 are slowed because of economy then certainly there should be some additional visa numbers available for EB2 I and C.At this stage it depends on PERM EB2 ROW data.
more...
philliBECupdate
04-01 11:31 AM
One of a consulting company has received labour approvals from Philli for Feb 2003. I dont have the details now I will post the details on monday its in my office computer. I saw the approval notices 30 days back.
All the labor pettions that the company has applied was approved including the one they applied in Feb 2002. ...Confusing.
All the labor pettions that the company has applied was approved including the one they applied in Feb 2002. ...Confusing.
GotGC??
01-04 02:45 PM
...here is the latest example (http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/NEWS/India/For_IITians_today_home_is_where_the_moolah_is/articleshow/1054987.cms).
'One leg of an IITian is in India, the other in Air India' went a popular wisecrack of the late 1980s and early '90s. No longer. The brain drain from IITs has diminished to a trickle, with only 21 out of 3,980 BTech graduates going abroad in 2006.
About two decades ago, over 80% IITians hopped on to a plane for foreign shores, the preferred destination being the US. The 'IIT route' was a BTech from IIT, an MS (Masters) from USA and a dollar job. Much has changed since then, and brains that used to be siphoned off by developed nations are now preferring to stay back home.
In the early 1990s, the outflow of computer science graduates to the US was so high that the World Bank, in a report, had suggested that an exit tax be imposed on IITians and other professionals leaving the country � this, it said, could earn the government over $1 billion (about Rs 4,400 crore) per annum. Today, if the government decided to adopt this, it would earn only crumbs.
A quick look at statistics shows that in 2006, only three of IIT Kanpur�s 273 BTech students and two from the five-year MSc integrated course went abroad. All the others � 267 MTech students, two-year MSc grads and MBAs � stayed back in the country. At IIT Delhi, of the approximate 1,000 job-seekers, only one student went abroad to join CapitalOne, a financial consulting firm.
The slowdown is evident even at the older IITs. At IIT Mumbai, 95% of the students were placed in India while at IIT Madras, only two BTech students went on to join Lehman Brothers at the Tokyo office.
"There was a time when I had to set aside days to write recommendation letters for students wanting to go abroad, either to study or work," says Ashok Misra, IIT-B director. ��Now, because good jobs are available to BTech students, not many opt for post-graduate courses abroad. Only about 15% students go overseas for higher studies and approximately 5% take a job outside India."
Ratnajit Bhattacharjee, faculty in-charge (training and placement) of IIT Guwahati, says corporate giants still opt for IITians but prefer to recruit them for their India operations. Bhattacharjee attributes the phenomenon of "almost zero brain drain" to the fact that MNCs have not just entered the country in a big way but are also looking at greater expansion here. "British Telecom used to regularly hire IIT Guwahati students,�� he says. ��It does today also, but for its Bangalore operations."
Deepak Phatak, former head of the computer science department at IIT Bombay, who conducted exit interviews with students from 1991 to 1994, remembers almost everyone then was flying to the US.
'One leg of an IITian is in India, the other in Air India' went a popular wisecrack of the late 1980s and early '90s. No longer. The brain drain from IITs has diminished to a trickle, with only 21 out of 3,980 BTech graduates going abroad in 2006.
About two decades ago, over 80% IITians hopped on to a plane for foreign shores, the preferred destination being the US. The 'IIT route' was a BTech from IIT, an MS (Masters) from USA and a dollar job. Much has changed since then, and brains that used to be siphoned off by developed nations are now preferring to stay back home.
In the early 1990s, the outflow of computer science graduates to the US was so high that the World Bank, in a report, had suggested that an exit tax be imposed on IITians and other professionals leaving the country � this, it said, could earn the government over $1 billion (about Rs 4,400 crore) per annum. Today, if the government decided to adopt this, it would earn only crumbs.
A quick look at statistics shows that in 2006, only three of IIT Kanpur�s 273 BTech students and two from the five-year MSc integrated course went abroad. All the others � 267 MTech students, two-year MSc grads and MBAs � stayed back in the country. At IIT Delhi, of the approximate 1,000 job-seekers, only one student went abroad to join CapitalOne, a financial consulting firm.
The slowdown is evident even at the older IITs. At IIT Mumbai, 95% of the students were placed in India while at IIT Madras, only two BTech students went on to join Lehman Brothers at the Tokyo office.
"There was a time when I had to set aside days to write recommendation letters for students wanting to go abroad, either to study or work," says Ashok Misra, IIT-B director. ��Now, because good jobs are available to BTech students, not many opt for post-graduate courses abroad. Only about 15% students go overseas for higher studies and approximately 5% take a job outside India."
Ratnajit Bhattacharjee, faculty in-charge (training and placement) of IIT Guwahati, says corporate giants still opt for IITians but prefer to recruit them for their India operations. Bhattacharjee attributes the phenomenon of "almost zero brain drain" to the fact that MNCs have not just entered the country in a big way but are also looking at greater expansion here. "British Telecom used to regularly hire IIT Guwahati students,�� he says. ��It does today also, but for its Bangalore operations."
Deepak Phatak, former head of the computer science department at IIT Bombay, who conducted exit interviews with students from 1991 to 1994, remembers almost everyone then was flying to the US.
more...
Totoro
05-02 01:41 PM
it is shame on IRS!! listen, everyone is paying tax. if we are able to file tax as couple with itin for the spouse, why are they not using the same approach for the stimulus package. Do they not aware of this section of h1b visa holders who are paying taxes and are not benefited. folks, some of you are in h1b and got your ead and ssn for your sponse are better off, there are folks who are still on h1b and spouse on h4 filed with itin is not eligible because i am not within in the <70k limit. this is ridiculus and shame for everyone who came up with the great idea of stimulating the economy and share our tax money to others and not with this disadvantage section of the people. it is absolutely shame for IRS or whoever came up with the super idea of not considering the folks who filed with ITIN. IRS listen, if anyone who is citizen, illegal or legal, if they pay tax, they are entitled to get this stimulus package.. it is really a shame on you whoever not recognized this affected section of people.
It is not the IRS's fault. They are just following the law. The IRS people are not very happy about this law either. It just makes their job that much more complicated.
One person you can thank for this is Lou Dobbs, who went off parroting the comments of FAIR.
http://firstfriday.wordpress.com/2008/01/30/congressional-republicans-to-lou-dobbs-youre-wrong-jerk-ok-we-added-the-jerk-bit/
It makes you wonder who is pulling the strings in Washington.
Again, if anyone is willing to share his or her story with the press, please contact me.
It is not the IRS's fault. They are just following the law. The IRS people are not very happy about this law either. It just makes their job that much more complicated.
One person you can thank for this is Lou Dobbs, who went off parroting the comments of FAIR.
http://firstfriday.wordpress.com/2008/01/30/congressional-republicans-to-lou-dobbs-youre-wrong-jerk-ok-we-added-the-jerk-bit/
It makes you wonder who is pulling the strings in Washington.
Again, if anyone is willing to share his or her story with the press, please contact me.
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sen_raju
07-19 01:22 AM
Contributed $100 yesterday.
Will contribute again next month.
Keep up the good work.
___________________________
Total Contribution So Far $175+
Will contribute again next month.
Keep up the good work.
___________________________
Total Contribution So Far $175+
more...
Humhongekamyab
02-18 03:32 PM
Lets make the EB2 date to 28 Dec 05..tthat will cover my PD :D:D:D
I agree. Mine is December 15, 2005.
I agree. Mine is December 15, 2005.
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lonedesi
08-06 08:24 AM
Raydon, thanks for expressing your situation. But I still feel we are not requesting TSC to expedite our cases. All we are asking his, please do justice to us and follow the FIFO for the I-140 petitions. TSC has been consistently approving cases filed in recently and just continuing to ignore our cases. If you can explain your attorney, I am sure he will understand. Or atleast have him, fill out form 7001 on your behalf and send his own letter explaining the situation to Ombudsman's office.
I understand that I-140 is employer petition, but it ulitmately belongs to you. So you need to do whatever you can do some how convince your employer or attorney to assist you one time. I-485 is your petition, and you do not need any consent, if you need to send a letter to Ombudsman's office. So please try your best and see if you can mail the form & letter to Ombudsman's office.
lonedesi,
Much as I'd like to participate in this campaign, it's the employer's signature that I can't guarantee. My employer is a big and prestigious (supposedly) company and will not want to sign this petition or do anything against the counsel of the attorney. The attorney is not gaining anything by expedited processing of the I-140 and won't support this either. He's an AILA member too, if that's of any significance.
If this is worthless without the employer's signature, then I'm unable to participate in this campaign, though it is a worthy effort.I would urge all members who can get the employer's consent to definitely participate and wake up the USCIS from it's slumber.They need a big kick up their you-know-where, especially the TSC.
I understand that I-140 is employer petition, but it ulitmately belongs to you. So you need to do whatever you can do some how convince your employer or attorney to assist you one time. I-485 is your petition, and you do not need any consent, if you need to send a letter to Ombudsman's office. So please try your best and see if you can mail the form & letter to Ombudsman's office.
lonedesi,
Much as I'd like to participate in this campaign, it's the employer's signature that I can't guarantee. My employer is a big and prestigious (supposedly) company and will not want to sign this petition or do anything against the counsel of the attorney. The attorney is not gaining anything by expedited processing of the I-140 and won't support this either. He's an AILA member too, if that's of any significance.
If this is worthless without the employer's signature, then I'm unable to participate in this campaign, though it is a worthy effort.I would urge all members who can get the employer's consent to definitely participate and wake up the USCIS from it's slumber.They need a big kick up their you-know-where, especially the TSC.
more...
paskal
12-18 05:50 PM
you are right, and it would be nice, however
it's clear our funds are not exactly astronomical.
so let's concentrate on building them up first along with our membership.
then we can sit back and worry about how much more is really needed....
it's clear our funds are not exactly astronomical.
so let's concentrate on building them up first along with our membership.
then we can sit back and worry about how much more is really needed....
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gsc999
07-09 05:30 PM
If you need a car ride from LA to San Jose for 07/14 rally. Please see details on the link below:
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=6156&page=10
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=6156&page=10
more...
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arnab221
06-21 01:35 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TCbFEgFajGU
This has been there since a long time . Every new process has its backes and the resisters . The president of the US resisted the telephone also when Edison invented it . Relax don't lose your sleep about it . Atlanta is backlogged due to the incompetence and heavy workload of workers there . nothing more , nothing less .
This has been there since a long time . Every new process has its backes and the resisters . The president of the US resisted the telephone also when Edison invented it . Relax don't lose your sleep about it . Atlanta is backlogged due to the incompetence and heavy workload of workers there . nothing more , nothing less .
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texcan
09-12 01:50 PM
Thankyou sukhwinderd and ravish_kaipa.
All, please remember my intention is to motivate the people who never contributed and who start
a $50 monthly contribution at least for six months. Also don't forget to PM me when you
start your monthly contibution.
Anyway good start. sukhwinderd and ravish_kaipa please consider monthly contributions.
Here are the details about my contribution of $100
Order Details - Sep 12, 2007 1:02 PM EDT
Google Order #366145912118249
Kudos Milind123,
You are an amazing person. I bow to your selflessness and
wonderful community initiatives.
Regards
All, please remember my intention is to motivate the people who never contributed and who start
a $50 monthly contribution at least for six months. Also don't forget to PM me when you
start your monthly contibution.
Anyway good start. sukhwinderd and ravish_kaipa please consider monthly contributions.
Here are the details about my contribution of $100
Order Details - Sep 12, 2007 1:02 PM EDT
Google Order #366145912118249
Kudos Milind123,
You are an amazing person. I bow to your selflessness and
wonderful community initiatives.
Regards
more...
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Saralayar
01-04 01:25 PM
I also got the same message. But it says document mailed and not as Travel Document approved. What does this mean?. IS the AP approved or any RFE on the AP??:confused:
^^^bump^^^^
^^^bump^^^^
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cbadari99
06-24 11:44 PM
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/25/us/25engineer.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1&hp
"The dean of the College of Engineering at Georgia Tech, Don P. Giddens, noted an additional factor limiting the recruitment of highly trained engineers into military jobs: more than half the engineering doctoral candidates at American universities are from abroad and so are ineligible for most jobs requiring security clearances."
"The dean of the College of Engineering at Georgia Tech, Don P. Giddens, noted an additional factor limiting the recruitment of highly trained engineers into military jobs: more than half the engineering doctoral candidates at American universities are from abroad and so are ineligible for most jobs requiring security clearances."
more...
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PrayForEveryone
07-23 03:57 PM
I know 3 friends of mine who got an email for USCIS rearding the GC approval. They all had priority dates around April-June 2004 EB3 India. These are the lucky ones who got labor cleared in 2-3 months (just prior to BEC/PERM) and had filed 485/140 concurrently.
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AK_GC
03-04 01:51 PM
I got a RFE for I-693 (Medical Exam) on Jan 27 and we responded in Feb. Our case is being processed in NSC. My husband is the primary applicant. It does seem like something is cooking there...
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hiralal
05-29 12:05 AM
if your loan is denied while on EAD ..count yourself as lucky !!!
my advice ..be careful before you take a plunge when on EAD or on temporary visa (H1).
-----------------
MONDAY, MAY 25, 2009
OTHER VOICES
The Housing Hurricane Will Howl Again
By MIKE MORGAN | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR
This is only a lull in the housing hurricane.
WE'RE OUT OF THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE, but here comes the back half of the storm. A lot of people think that we've seen the worst of the housing crisis. They're talking about green shoots and glimmers of hope, when they should be back in the storm shelter, preparing for a flood of inventory that will overwhelm the markets and produce another round of falling prices
For the past few months there has been a semi-moratorium on foreclosures. Most institutions with delinquent mortgages didn't foreclose. The signs that blanket many neighborhoods have been posted by a fraction of the lenders. Now the rest of the banks are rushing to get their properties on the market.
[ov]
Christoph Hitz for Barron's
We're still supporting misguided programs that only add to inventory woes. They encourage builders to put up more homes and penalize anyone else trying to sell a home.
As a Florida real-estate broker who works with bank asset managers to dispose of foreclosed properties, I get a good view of this market. From December 2008 through mid-March 2009, the number of asset managers calling to discuss REO (real estate owned) properties on their client banks' books dropped by more than 80% from the level at which it previously had been running. In the past two months, however, asset managers have been busy, with most interested in how many properties we could handle at once.
Law firms for banks are once again lining up to file foreclosures and to process evictions. The asset managers we work with have warned us to expect a flood of properties, beginning in early June. This will hit as the number of potential buyers continues to dwindle. Builders, traditional sellers and investors who entered too early are already loaded with REO properties.
ALL OF THE OBAMA administration's attempts to revive, resuscitate and shock the housing markets into recovery have failed. Potential buyers can't purchase homes when they are losing their jobs, regardless of how attractive the credits and mortgages are. The price of homes will continue to fall until the properties are affordable for potential buyers.
If an investor could purchase a home and rent it out for close to breakeven, we might be getting close to a bottom. But we are nowhere close to that level in most critical markets. Until it is approached, prices will continue to fall. In fact, the negative cash flow now evident, along with the flood of properties coming into the inventory pool, warn of lower prices.
There's no light at the end of the tunnel yet. We're still supporting builders through misguided programs that are only adding to the inventory woes. California decided to offer a $10,000 credit to buyers of new homes, on top of the $8,000 federal credit. But California made the $10,000 available only for new homes purchased directly from builders. That shows the power of the builders' lobby, but it only adds to California's housing-industry problem. It encourages builders to construct dwellings we don't need, and it penalizes anyone else trying to sell a home.
Housing inventory soon will flood a market in which more than 500,000 homes are being built each year, even though the annual sales pace for new homes is closer to 300,000. We must also deal with a system clogged with impossible short sales, a surge of second and vacation homes being dumped, and third-wave flippers realizing that they entered the market too soon.
FOR THE BANKS, the back half of the hurricane will destroy balance sheets, unless the Obama administration comes up with another plan to mythically mark these assets on the books. Or we might see some chimerical plan to write down mortgage payments, or move toxic mortgages into a dark pool, or create some new illusion that glosses over the problem.
Our experience with banks' selling REOs is they realize about 50%-75% of what they initially think they will get. Moreover, their expenses to bring these properties to market and manage them are growing. Court systems bogged down with foreclosures are raising fees so that they can hire additional staff. More and more homeowners being evicted are stripping homes to the bone, removing appliances, fixtures, carpet, cabinets, air handlers, motorized garage-door openers and anything else that they can carry off or sell.
Unemployment presents a two-pronged problem. If homeowners lose their jobs, they have difficulty meeting mortgage payments. And a high jobless rate forces more people to put their homes on the market.
During the housing bubble, many second homes were purchased with the mythical equity from primary residences. These second homes are coming onto the market at an alarming rate, as many middle- and upper-class sellers need to raise cash. In some very exclusive private communities in Florida, where home prices are in the seven figures, more than 50% of the homes are on the market. (For more on the vacation-home market, see Cover Story.)
Unfortunately, there are no signs of recovery, despite the hype and the twisting of numbers in many media reports. The end of the unofficial moratorium on foreclosures, combined with rising unemployment, signals that the back half of this housing hurricane is only just beginning.
my advice ..be careful before you take a plunge when on EAD or on temporary visa (H1).
-----------------
MONDAY, MAY 25, 2009
OTHER VOICES
The Housing Hurricane Will Howl Again
By MIKE MORGAN | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR
This is only a lull in the housing hurricane.
WE'RE OUT OF THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE, but here comes the back half of the storm. A lot of people think that we've seen the worst of the housing crisis. They're talking about green shoots and glimmers of hope, when they should be back in the storm shelter, preparing for a flood of inventory that will overwhelm the markets and produce another round of falling prices
For the past few months there has been a semi-moratorium on foreclosures. Most institutions with delinquent mortgages didn't foreclose. The signs that blanket many neighborhoods have been posted by a fraction of the lenders. Now the rest of the banks are rushing to get their properties on the market.
[ov]
Christoph Hitz for Barron's
We're still supporting misguided programs that only add to inventory woes. They encourage builders to put up more homes and penalize anyone else trying to sell a home.
As a Florida real-estate broker who works with bank asset managers to dispose of foreclosed properties, I get a good view of this market. From December 2008 through mid-March 2009, the number of asset managers calling to discuss REO (real estate owned) properties on their client banks' books dropped by more than 80% from the level at which it previously had been running. In the past two months, however, asset managers have been busy, with most interested in how many properties we could handle at once.
Law firms for banks are once again lining up to file foreclosures and to process evictions. The asset managers we work with have warned us to expect a flood of properties, beginning in early June. This will hit as the number of potential buyers continues to dwindle. Builders, traditional sellers and investors who entered too early are already loaded with REO properties.
ALL OF THE OBAMA administration's attempts to revive, resuscitate and shock the housing markets into recovery have failed. Potential buyers can't purchase homes when they are losing their jobs, regardless of how attractive the credits and mortgages are. The price of homes will continue to fall until the properties are affordable for potential buyers.
If an investor could purchase a home and rent it out for close to breakeven, we might be getting close to a bottom. But we are nowhere close to that level in most critical markets. Until it is approached, prices will continue to fall. In fact, the negative cash flow now evident, along with the flood of properties coming into the inventory pool, warn of lower prices.
There's no light at the end of the tunnel yet. We're still supporting builders through misguided programs that are only adding to the inventory woes. California decided to offer a $10,000 credit to buyers of new homes, on top of the $8,000 federal credit. But California made the $10,000 available only for new homes purchased directly from builders. That shows the power of the builders' lobby, but it only adds to California's housing-industry problem. It encourages builders to construct dwellings we don't need, and it penalizes anyone else trying to sell a home.
Housing inventory soon will flood a market in which more than 500,000 homes are being built each year, even though the annual sales pace for new homes is closer to 300,000. We must also deal with a system clogged with impossible short sales, a surge of second and vacation homes being dumped, and third-wave flippers realizing that they entered the market too soon.
FOR THE BANKS, the back half of the hurricane will destroy balance sheets, unless the Obama administration comes up with another plan to mythically mark these assets on the books. Or we might see some chimerical plan to write down mortgage payments, or move toxic mortgages into a dark pool, or create some new illusion that glosses over the problem.
Our experience with banks' selling REOs is they realize about 50%-75% of what they initially think they will get. Moreover, their expenses to bring these properties to market and manage them are growing. Court systems bogged down with foreclosures are raising fees so that they can hire additional staff. More and more homeowners being evicted are stripping homes to the bone, removing appliances, fixtures, carpet, cabinets, air handlers, motorized garage-door openers and anything else that they can carry off or sell.
Unemployment presents a two-pronged problem. If homeowners lose their jobs, they have difficulty meeting mortgage payments. And a high jobless rate forces more people to put their homes on the market.
During the housing bubble, many second homes were purchased with the mythical equity from primary residences. These second homes are coming onto the market at an alarming rate, as many middle- and upper-class sellers need to raise cash. In some very exclusive private communities in Florida, where home prices are in the seven figures, more than 50% of the homes are on the market. (For more on the vacation-home market, see Cover Story.)
Unfortunately, there are no signs of recovery, despite the hype and the twisting of numbers in many media reports. The end of the unofficial moratorium on foreclosures, combined with rising unemployment, signals that the back half of this housing hurricane is only just beginning.
gc_on_demand
05-27 03:47 PM
If I may suggest it may help our funding drive if we allow smaller contributions. (20$ or 10$) both recurring and one time.
I know at least a couple of people who would do a 20$ 2-3 times a year but won't do a $50. Anecdotal but may hold true for a lot more people.
-dslamba
We should do that .. Only fear is people who are contributing 50 will change to 20.. and what if those new members wont contribute ?
I know at least a couple of people who would do a 20$ 2-3 times a year but won't do a $50. Anecdotal but may hold true for a lot more people.
-dslamba
We should do that .. Only fear is people who are contributing 50 will change to 20.. and what if those new members wont contribute ?
ronhira
07-06 02:02 AM
I agree, what did I do for IV for the past few months, nothing. Responded to one or two threads. Been very busy at work and was not able to contribute constructively to this organization. I am wondering how many of us are in this same boat, what are we all actually doing in helping the organization from either volunteering, getting more people to open their eyes and recognize a problem and organize and mobilize people. I have been trying for the past 4 years and its not easy and not always successful. To see the leadership team constantly juggling between work and working on different initiatives and putting in self less hours really requires appreciation. Now I think its worth asking ourselves, how much have we done or are willing to do to take us to where all of us want to be IMHO.
let me ask you this. did anyone from "leadership" call/email/contact you when you were inactive/busy with your life. if the leaders did not call/email you, how will you know if your help is needed. i don't see how its u'r fault
let me ask you this. did anyone from "leadership" call/email/contact you when you were inactive/busy with your life. if the leaders did not call/email you, how will you know if your help is needed. i don't see how its u'r fault
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